Losing early vote 2:1, Democrats need to adjust, yesterday
As Tennessee heads into Election Day for the state primary, Democrats should be in total panic mode.
I wrote about the Republican primary at the top of early voting. It was Marsha Blackburn’s to lose then, and now she’s panicking. Polls are tightening among Republicans, with gains for Monty Fritts and John Rose. Neither one is a good alternative—Fritts wants to execute women for having abortions, and Rose wouldn’t vote to certify the 2020 election. It’s bad all around.
People need hope, but it has to be built on solid ground. Right now there’s no reason to hope Democrats in Tennessee can do better in 2026 than in 2024, 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014 or 2012.
Looking honestly at the disaster Democrats are in is the only way out. The Republican winner is likely to become governor, and the Tennessee Democratic Party is in no shape to stop it.
Trigger warning: I don’t have nice things to say about the Tennessee Democratic Party. If you’re a volunteer who knocks doors, a candidate for school board, a hard-working staffer, or otherwise not a high-level decision maker, I am not writing about you. I want the party to get its shit together so your work won’t be in vain.
This unimpressive Google Sheet shows the results of statewide elections in Tennessee since 2018. Democratic vote share has steadily declined. Raw totals are from the Tennessee Secretary of State’s website.
A permanent 15-point deficit
Democrats are averaging a 15-point deficit in Tennessee. Examples of 15-point swings are rare in American history. FDR flipped control of the White House by 17 points in 1932. Reagan increased his win margin by 16 points in 1984. Florida swung to Ron DeSantis by 17 points, Louisiana to Bobby Jindal by 47 points, Kentucky to Andy Beshear by 0.4 points and Virginia to Glenn Youngkin by 11 points.
Decide for yourself whether that’s possible in Tennessee, considering the current state of the party going into the primary:
- Democrats have had a presumptive nominee since before the candidate qualifying deadline. Every party leader and organization is behind Jerri Green, and no one else on the ballot has put together an organized campaign. She’s campaigning hard, but she’s still unknown to the average Democratic voter. Candidates hate contested primaries, but they make for stronger campaigns.
- Green’s cash on hand is at $200,000 as of July 31. She will have to spend the majority of her time fundraising to keep the campaign staffed, before taking on a Republican with millions on hand and infinite reserves. It sucks, but money is decisive.
- The primary for U.S. Senate is competitive, but among perennial and unknown candidates with zero dollars. Incumbent Sen. Bill Hagerty, who is also unknown, will be OK.
- The night before early voting began, the state’s Tennessee Democratic Executive Committee had a virtual briefing on current litigation against the chair, the result of nasty infighting among party leaders, which shows no sign of ceasing before November.
- The same party chair told the same committee in a public June meeting that her strategy was to win three State House seats. When asked about a budget, she said there wasn’t a budget for that beyond party operating costs.
- Congressional primaries are driving turnout. While there are large percentage increases in the number of voters pulling Democratic ballots, the more significant numbers are the raw totals. Republicans are outvoting Democrats 2:1. That’s really bad news when the closest Congressional seat is R+9. Remember: the party’s budget for those 9 points is zero dollars.
There are a few bright spots:
- East Tennessee has some of the party’s most exciting new voices: Michaela Bennett, Kristi Burke and Beau Hawk. They’re a breath of fresh air and should be the norm.
- County parties are more organized than they’ve been in more than a decade, and we have a record number of candidates running in local races. Even one flip would be an upset and give the party something to build on.
So there are still bright spots, but we shouldn’t look away from how far the Democratic Party has fallen in Tennessee. The state has had Republican governors since 2010 and supermajorities in the legislature since 2012. Congressional seats held by Democrats fell to two in 2010, to one in 2022, and could fall to zero this November. We are 16 years out of power.
No gains after Covenant = total defeat
Democrats should understand the 2024 election as a total defeat. It came after the Covenant shooting and the legislative expulsions. Six dead and no action from Republicans netting zero flips.
I can attest that candidates and party-aligned organizations did more in 2024 than they have in any recent cycle. More doors were knocked, mailers were sent, ads were bought. But none of it “worked”—every single county shifted right in 2024 compared with 2020. I hold myself to that standard! I busted my ass in 2024 for candidates, and none of it worked.
Democrats like to say we’re a non-voting state. That’s true. But then isn’t it also true that Democrats have failed to turn out non-voters? Democrats like to say people agree with us on the issues. That’s true too. But then isn’t it true that agreement isn’t converting to votes?
People are simply not buying what we’re selling.
One of our 2024 congressional candidates told me something I’ll never forget: “They couldn’t vote for a Democrat to save their child’s life.” In other words, voters agreed that gun violence threatened their children and that Republicans were too extreme. But they still couldn’t vote Democratic instead.
This all sounds really hopeless—and it is—but I feel a responsibility to talk about it. Strategically, we are sleepwalking into November and not having a public conversation about ourselves, which is something parties have to do to stay relevant. I’ll write more about what I think would help, but one person can’t fix it. The Democratic Party won’t change unless large numbers of Democrats demand it.
The races that matter
London Lamar v. Justin Pearson: The closest Congressional primary is in District 9. Justin Pearson is the favorite here, but London Lamar is a strong challenger. She got in the race after her mentor, incumbent Steve Cohen, dropped out. It stinks of anointed successor. Lamar is also the Senate Democratic Caucus chair, meaning it’s still her job to lead State Senate fundraising if she’s the nominee. Pearson has run as an agent of change, while Lamar is making a case that her legislative accomplishments are what matter. Her legislative track record is undeniably impressive, but I don’t think it’s what we need right now in Congress. She’s posted a summary of every bill she’s ever passed, and you should decide for yourself whether that alone meets the moment.
Chaz Molder v. Everyone: I think Chaz Molder’s campaign is an example of the type of race Democrats have to stop running—designed in a lab not to be noticed. Molder has refused to comment on the genocide in Gaza, an issue that hurt Democrats quite a lot. But more than that, if a candidate for Congress can’t speak against genocide, you can’t expect them to do the right thing any other time.
Moderates v. Progressives: The four-way Democratic primary in District 59 is a proxy battle in the ongoing war among the House Democratic Caucus. The seat is open after Hemmer decided not to seek reelection. Should Democrats be nice or be brawlers? Should we be moderate or more progressive? The moderate men want Mark Proctor, and the progressive fighters—including Aftyn Behn—want Beth West. Rick Ewing, another candidate, is an Oracle executive. Angie West, another candidate, wrote to a judge that Cade Cothren deserves a break. She also hosts a podcast.
A pervert v. a Democrat: An upper East Tennessee school board race will pose a major test for the moral fiber of our state’s voters. Keith Irvin made Johnson City a total laughingstock when he told a teenager “God you’re hot” earlier this year in the middle of a public meeting. He’s up for re-election in August in an election where the top three vote-getters win. Three Republicans and one Democrat are running. In other words, can Republicans vote for a Democrat to protect teenage girls?
Matt Anderson is a writer and political strategist based in Nashville. He previously served as press secretary for the Tennessee Senate Democratic Caucus and on the Tennessee Democratic Party Executive Committee.
