Plus: how John Rose or Monty Fritts could win
It’s primary season in Tennessee, and both sides have the same primary panic:
Is Marsha going to be governor?!
If we’re being real? She has more than $6 million on hand. There’s more where that came from.
I see a lot of denial and hopium out there. I recently read online that the likely Democratic nominee, Jerri Green, could win because Democrats had higher percentage increases in turnout in the 2026 county primaries. I wouldn’t buy that for a dollar.*
Anything could happen, but Marsha Blackburn, who everyone supposedly hates, is the indisputable favorite to win both the Republican nomination and the governor’s mansion.
But first we’ve got actual primaries. The kind that people aggressively avoid before complaining about their two (or this time three?) in the fall. Early voting starts Friday, July 17.
I’m going to share my takes on the Republicans today, and send my takes on the Democrats tomorrow.
It’s just going to be Marsha, right?
I really am of two minds about who will win the Republican primary for governor. Before 9 p.m. central on primary night, early and absentee vote could come in, and the entire state, in unison, will realize that Marsha Blackburn was inevitable all along.
Or, something weird could happen! This is not a cop out. Scientific consensus points to the existence of multiple timelines. John Rose insists he’s in a two-way race with Blackburn, and Monty Rose insists he’s in a three-way race with both of those “D.C. politicians.”
The last competitive Republican primary for governor was in 2018. Diane Black was considered the favorite, and Randy Boyd and Beth Harwell were also top contenders. Bill Lee was just a guy. Black, Boyd and Harwell started attacking each other, and Bill Lee rose to the top.
That means it could be anyone’s race, but the balance is different in 2026 than in 2018. Blackburn is a heavy favorite who has only polled below 50 percent in one internal, publicly released poll by John Rose.
Rose has personal money, but he’s not a celebrity like Blackburn. Monty Fritts is a new kind of Republican, who I think could win in an open primary without such a heavy favorite like Blackburn dominating. John Rose only has $2 million on hand. Fritts has enough for gas and signs. Blackburn’s got Koch Bros.-funded ads and organizers behind her. She’s won a whole lot of elections before.
The average Republican voter is just now paying attention, so while the polls have had huge Blackburn leads with Rose and Fritts competing for scraps, things could start to move. Rose released an internal poll showing Blackburn under 50% and his support climbing to 20%.
It’s no surprise that voters would look at their options, but it’s still hard to see how Rose or Fritts overtake Blackburn without splitting the vote. She’s not doing debates because she feels strong enough to take arrows and not risk mistakes. If I had $6 million that’s what I’d do.
Finally, I have to say, if you put a gun to my head, and I had to vote in the Republican primary: I would choose Marsha Blackburn. She voted to uphold the 2020 election, and because I believe it was a coup attempt, I think it’s a big deal. John Rose did not vote to uphold the election, and Fritts said he wouldn’t have. Fritts is so extreme on a lot of issues that it’s hard to process. If you take him at his word—and I do—he wants to be a tyrant.
How Rose could win
Here’s what I think is required for Rose to win:
- Blackburn collapses, because Republicans are just over her.
- Republicans are looking for stability and continuity after 16 years of governors named Bill.
- Rose and Fritts get a good look, but Fritts doesn’t “feel” like a governor, and Rose does.
- Fritts turns out to have a ceiling. Blackburn stalls, and the poll showing Rose at 20% turns out to be the first of several showing momentum.
- Rose continues to challenge Blackburn to debates while refusing to debate Fritts.
- He does a positive media tour where radio and podcast hosts are really impressed by the farmer stuff and the Jesus stuff.
- Trump likes a winner, and endorses Rose at the last minute.
- Rose 47%, Blackburn 42%, Fritts 11%.
How Fritts could win
Here’s what I think is required for Fritts to win:
- Blackburn collapses because Republicans are ready to turn on the establishment, wanting more deportations and a ban on data centers.
- Rose looks like more of the same, and the child bride thing is too weird, even if the average Republican thinks it’s mean to talk about.
- Fritts starts to rise in the polls enough to bother Rose, leading him to attack Fritts.
- Fritts continues to do cool shit online like boxing, driving muscle cars and playing army.
- Fritts can now say “I’m running a race about you, while the politicians are at it again” (the same card Bill Lee played).
- The momentum leads to national far right attention.
- Liberal backlash to Fritts negatively polarizes Republicans, who begin to like him for taking heat on behalf of Jesus Christ.
- As late deciders start to look closely, Fritts’ network of pastors and validators from his years of organizing a statewide prayer month come to bear.
- Some Blackburn people come home from Rose, because Fritts makes them nervous, but it’s too late.
- Trump likes a winner, and endorses Fritts at the last minute.
- Fritts 36%, Blackburn 32%, Rose 27%.
U.S. Senate primary
Bill Hagerty is uncontested for the Republican nomination and is set to win a second term as the most unknown member of the United States Senate. Again not to be rude to anyone running, but I’m trying to do quality analysis. He will be re-elected.
U.S. Congress
I don’t think there’s a single contested primary on the Republican side. Districts 6 and 9 are open. State Rep. Johnny Garrett is a heavy favorite in District 6, although some people still remember former Congressman Van Hilleary. The other two are nobodies. Brent Taylor has been endorsed by Trump in District 9, and that race is over even if Todd Warner has to go through the motions.
State legislature
If there’s a seriously contested primary for state House or Senate, I simply don’t know about it.
But what does Aftyn think?
For fun, I asked Rep. Aftyn Behn to size up the Republican field for governor.
And when she’s right, she’s right:
“Marsha Blackburn and her Marsha machine are fooling everyone: she’s backed by the tech oligarchs, including taking $100 million from TikTok owner Jess Yass, and when she means “DOGE,” she really means she’s going to cut your Meemaw off of TennCare and that family on your block off of food stamps.
“Rose would be the ‘normal’ choice, and his pandering towards a populist revolt could be tantalizing enough, but how does one reconcile his long-winded history with the Farm Bureau and their plight to sell Tennessee downriver to Monsanto?
“And finally, Monty… he’s taken up ending the grocery tax, DCS reform, and despite being supported by a heavy stream of Christian nationalism, might actually meet the moment. But the 30-year Marsha machine and Ward Baker couldn’t possibly live with themselves should Monty pull an upset? She’ll probably add their names to her death panels anyways.”
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*Here’s my problem with the hopium. The Green campaign argues that, for instance, a 1,377% increase in turnout in a red county like Blount County means a tectonic shift is coming. But it’s pretty bleak when you just look at raw numbers, which are very bad. In the 2026 Blount County primary, the lone Democratic candidate for county mayor got 1,828 votes, while the five Republicans running for county mayor got 15,602 among them. There’s not much to hope for there. If Democrats run campaigns on bad information, we’ll run bad campaigns. If you’re going to be swept in by a blue wave, you don’t have to think about how to swing Tennessee 20 points.
